What the calculator estimates
From average daily rate (ADR), occupancy, cleaning fees, and average stay length it builds:
- Gross annual revenue — booked nights × ADR, plus cleaning-fee income
- Net annual revenue and monthly cash flow — after operating expenses and the mortgage
- Effective nightly rate across all 365 days
- Cash-on-cash return if you enter total cash invested
Build occupancy and ADR conservatively
New listings ramp slowly — few reviews, weaker placement. For year one, haircut the market occupancy figure by 10–15 points and the market ADR by ~10%. If the deal still works on those numbers, you have margin.
Model a bad year before you buy
Run a downside case:
- Occupancy 15 points lower
- ADR 10% lower
- A new cluster of competing listings
- One month closed for a major repair
If a bad year still covers the mortgage and fixed costs, the property can survive a soft market. If it goes deeply negative, you’re depending on everything going right.
Check the rules first
Before anything else, read the city or county’s short-term-rental ordinance: permit caps, primary-residence requirements, minimum-night rules, HOA restrictions, and occupancy taxes. Regulation is the number-one way STR projections break. If the numbers only work as a short-term rental and the rules are shaky, analyze it as a long-term rental and see if you’d still buy.